Doha talks to continue till 2011?
In a guest column in the Economic Times last week, Suparna Karmakar, of ICRIER suggests that the intractabilities in ongoing Doha negotiations mean that the talks might only end in 2010, with implementation starting in January 2011.
The most likely scenario is that Doha will remain at the present level of low-key engagement till 2009, when negotiations will begin in full earnest and a likely timeline for the Round to start implementation will be January 1, 2011.
Why 2011? This is because multilateral trade negotiations are more of an exercise in political economy than pure economics or even trade imperatives. Tradeoffs in WTO negotiations are essentially slug-offs between the well-established and entrenched interests within individual countries and sectors, to the detriment of others (both at home and outside) who would otherwise have benefited from freer trade.
However, even with an agreement on the broad contours of the potential deal by mid-2009, the sorting out of ‘modalities’ and other details which would be necessary before the agreement can be deemed to be ready for signatures, would take anything between 12-15 months.
On what Doha difficulties mean for the future of the WTO, she writes:
Two variations of a view are doing the rounds when it comes to Doha’s prospects. Some opine that WTO is dead; others say Doha is dead. In this author’s view, neither is a plausible scenario; and anyway, multilateral institutions and engagements don’t just die so easily.
The problems in this round are not only because of an overly enhanced agenda and a large membership of developing-countries, who are active participants and demandeurs unlike in the earlier rounds, but also because the negotiations are focused on ‘politically sensitive’ issues that call for difficult adjustments from all participants.
